I have been reading and researching what has been written about the future of work and how we can prepare and be ready to adapt. I am going to use a gross over-simplified definition of business as demand meeting supply to explain what I have learned. In this simple definition, I look back at talent shortages or surpluses I have lived through and see them all as moderate adjustments of talent demand and supply. For example, we needed fewer transcriptionists and couldn't hire enough customer service representatives. What is different in this latest shift is that the scale of innovation is spectacular in terms of what technology can perform, and the pace of this shift is so much faster than what we have experienced before. The example that was shared in 2017 study by McKinsey Global Institute was that two years ago it took twenty people to make each oil rig productive, now it takes five. This is different than off-shoring work to other economies across the world, this is truly getting rid of the tasks entirely. Sensors and robotics have changed how the work occurs and made the people who are doing the work 400% more productive, in two years. The impact created through innovation is shocking.

Demand changes every year due to technology disruption: There will be an estimated 1 million more computing jobs than applicants by 2020. There were 500,000 computing jobs available in 2017, but fewer than 43,000 students graduated with a degree in computer science the year before. There are more than double the openings for Data Scientists than there are actual Data Scientists. An Artificial Intelligence recruiting tool called Talenya uses this gap as an example of why you need a bot to find your talent, that in hard to fill roles, you need to use technology to figure out who to even go after and what they are worth. Technology skills will continue to be in high demand, McKinsey estimates 34% growth in talent demand for technology professionals, but that is not all that is growing. Demand for care providers will continue to rise (30%), and builders (35%) will also rise. What is dramatically shrinking is the demand for office support (-20%) and predictable physical work (-31%).

Supply is changing as well: The Millennial and iGen generations believe they are investing in an organization and the organization should invest in them as well by giving them new skills and experiences. The evolution of families as two working adults or single parents has put pressure on people finding more flexible work arrangements, and more people working in the gig economy because traditional organizations have not yet figured out how to meet their customers expectations and give employees needed flexibility. Self-employment is on the rise and organizations will need to adapt their investment is skill-buiding and scheduling arrangements to complete. There were 41 million independent workers in the U.S. in 2017, representing 31% the of private workforce, up 2.8% from 2016. 3.2 million full-time independent workers made more than $100,000 annually in 2017, an increase of 4.9% from previous year.

McKinsey global institute estimates that while 50% of tasks could be automated it will be closer to 15%, due to the fact that jobs will be re-organized around a new set of tasks once the automation is in place. They also estimate that 375 million people will be displaced from their occupations and will need to not only find another occupation between 2016 and 2030, but up-skill and reinvent themselves. This isn't job movement, but rather shifting from an entire occupation.

One thing that is clear to me is that the complexity at play as both supply and demand change dramatically, will make this a messy process for us all to navigate. Will those that need to re-skill know what skills to focus upon? Can organizations forecast what skills they will need in a few years, post the automation rush? With both sides of the equation moving, balance will be hard to achieve. This ambiguity will also make it difficult for organizations (and HR specifically) to stay ahead of the business with forecasting needs. And hard for job-seekers and those organizations that provide re-skilling to know which skill should be the emphasized. And people will need to reinvent themselves multiple times in their lifetimes as these trends continue to evolve. The half-life (the period of time a skill is deemed useful and valuable) of a skill is now 5 years. For example, a skill you learned 10 years ago is likely to be less valuable or no longer has value in the workplace.

What is clear is that the focus on skills is the right way to navigate the conversation for all. If you are wondering what your next chapter will be, think about the skills you have and those you are enthusiastic to gain. If you are in a category that is forecasted to shrink, begin your reinvention and take control of your own path. And if you know you need people, but also know the people you need today will change quickly to something else, hire for the skills you will need longer-term in the organization not just for the specific bundle of tasks that you are hiring for right now. In an analysis of 25 common skill sets today, researchers found that between 2016 and 2030, demand for social and emotional skills will grow across all industries by 26% in the United States. Hire for these soft skills, nurture these soft skills in your people, AND think how you continually develop your people's technical skills. What they knew about technology when they started with you will soon be outdated if you don't help them keep it fresh.